Every team, one number. The difference between any two teams is the point spread on a neutral floor — add home field and you have the line. Compare any two numbers below and make your own line, or use the calculator to do it for you.
| Index | PF | PA | Total | PF home | PA home | Home total | PF away | PA away | Away total | move this week | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo Bills | 98.5 | 33.2 | 28.2 | 61.3 | 30.3 | 25.3 | 55.7 | 36.0 | 31.0 | 67.0 | -1.0 |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 98.0 | 29.3 | 13.0 | 42.3 | 31.7 | 19.0 | 50.7 | 27.0 | 7.0 | 34.0 | +1.0 |
| 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 97.0 | 26.3 | 18.3 | 44.5 | 21.5 | 16.5 | 38.0 | 31.0 | 20.0 | 51.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 97.0 | 26.0 | 13.3 | 39.3 | 34.5 | 8.0 | 42.5 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 36.0 | +1.0 |
| 5 | Green Bay Packers | 96.5 | 16.8 | 29.2 | 46.0 | 14.0 | 35.0 | 49.0 | 19.7 | 23.3 | 43.0 | +6.6 |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefs | 96.0 | 29.5 | 19.3 | 48.8 | 32.0 | 20.0 | 52.0 | 27.0 | 18.5 | 45.5 | 0.0 |
| 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 95.5 | 29.0 | 24.0 | 53.0 | 20.5 | 21.0 | 41.5 | 37.5 | 27.0 | 64.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | Denver Broncos | 95.5 | 18.5 | 23.5 | 42.0 | 25.0 | 19.5 | 44.5 | 12.0 | 27.5 | 39.5 | -0.5 |
| 9 | New England Patriots | 95.0 | 17.5 | 13.8 | 31.3 | 20.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 15.0 | 24.7 | 39.7 | +1.0 |
| 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 95.0 | 24.3 | 21.3 | 45.5 | 25.0 | 24.5 | 49.5 | 23.5 | 18.0 | 41.5 | -0.5 |
| 11 | Chicago Bears | 94.5 | 38.3 | 23.2 | 61.5 | 17.7 | 9.3 | 27.0 | 59.0 | 37.0 | 96.0 | 0.0 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Rams | 94.0 | 21.3 | 20.8 | 42.0 | 17.5 | 16.5 | 34.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | -2.0 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Eagles | 94.0 | 18.8 | 23.3 | 42.0 | 22.0 | 23.0 | 45.0 | 15.5 | 23.5 | 39.0 | -1.5 |
| 14 | Dallas Cowboys | 94.0 | 30.5 | 28.0 | 58.5 | 34.0 | 27.0 | 61.0 | 27.0 | 29.0 | 56.0 | +1.0 |
| 15 | Indianapolis Colts | 94.0 | 25.5 | 26.0 | 51.5 | 21.0 | 29.0 | 50.0 | 30.0 | 23.0 | 53.0 | +3.0 |
| 16 | Houston Texans | 93.0 | 19.7 | 24.5 | 44.2 | 22.3 | 30.0 | 52.3 | 17.0 | 19.0 | 36.0 | -1.0 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | 92.5 | 29.8 | 31.8 | 61.5 | 31.0 | 27.0 | 58.0 | 28.5 | 36.5 | 65.0 | 0.0 |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | 91.5 | 21.5 | 12.8 | 34.3 | 27.0 | 16.0 | 43.0 | 16.0 | 9.5 | 25.5 | -0.5 |
| 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 91.0 | 19.3 | 21.8 | 41.0 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 45.0 | 13.5 | 23.5 | 37.0 | +0.5 |
| 20 | Las Vegas Raiders | 91.0 | 28.8 | 21.0 | 49.8 | 27.0 | 21.5 | 48.5 | 30.5 | 20.5 | 51.0 | 0.0 |
| 21 | New Orleans Saints | 90.5 | 27.0 | 29.5 | 56.5 | 27.0 | 35.0 | 62.0 | 27.0 | 24.0 | 51.0 | -2.0 |
| 22 | Los Angeles Chargers | 90.0 | 16.8 | 26.5 | 43.3 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 40.0 | 19.5 | 27.0 | 46.5 | 0.0 |
| 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 89.5 | 21.7 | 27.0 | 48.7 | 16.3 | 21.0 | 37.3 | 27.0 | 33.0 | 60.0 | -3.0 |
| 24 | Carolina Panthers | 89.0 | 30.3 | 27.3 | 57.5 | 34.5 | 42.5 | 77.0 | 26.0 | 12.0 | 38.0 | 0.0 |
| 25 | Cleveland Browns | 89.0 | 20.3 | 23.8 | 44.0 | 24.0 | 21.0 | 45.0 | 16.5 | 26.5 | 43.0 | +1.0 |
| 26 | New York Giants | 89.0 | 15.7 | 22.5 | 38.2 | 25.3 | 17.0 | 42.3 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 34.0 | +1.5 |
| 27 | Atlanta Falcons | 88.5 | 13.5 | 25.5 | 39.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 37.0 | 24.0 | 17.0 | 41.0 | +3.0 |
| 28 | Arizona Cardinals | 87.5 | 16.8 | 29.8 | 46.7 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 38.0 | 26.7 | 28.7 | 55.3 | -1.5 |
| 29 | Washington Commanders | 86.5 | 22.0 | 30.5 | 52.5 | 23.0 | 30.5 | 53.5 | 21.0 | 30.5 | 51.5 | -2.0 |
| 30 | Tennessee Titans | 86.0 | 13.8 | 20.8 | 34.5 | 15.0 | 23.5 | 38.5 | 12.5 | 18.0 | 30.5 | +0.5 |
| 31 | New York Jets | 85.5 | 18.3 | 20.7 | 39.0 | 17.0 | 20.0 | 37.0 | 19.7 | 21.3 | 41.0 | 0.0 |
| 32 | Miami Dolphins | 83.5 | 11.0 | 24.8 | 35.8 | 10.0 | 24.0 | 34.0 | 12.0 | 25.7 | 37.7 | +0.5 |
Take the two teams' numbers and subtract. That is the spread on a neutral floor. Give the home side its home field and you have the line — a team at 96.0 hosting a team at 94.0 is favored by 2 plus home field. Nothing else to it, which is the point: one index point is one point of spread, so anyone can make a line in their head.
The house standard. That number — index gap plus home field — is where every line starts, in every sport on this page. The ratings are updated by hand after each night's scores, so the opinion is already baked in and the analytics do not get to argue with it. What the model may do is move the line, by two points at most, and the preview has to say why. Totals start from the situational number — this team's home scoring against that team's road defence, and the mirror — and the model may nudge that by three points at most, again explained in the preview. If the math wants more than the cap allows, it gets the cap.
There is one larger allowance, and it has to be earned. When something specific to that game changes it — a player ruled out, a rest day, a lineup change, weather — the move can run to six points, but only if the reason is named on the card. Two points cannot express a starter being scratched, and a rule that cannot price the most important thing that happens to a game is not discipline, it is a blind spot. What does not qualify: a number we get wrong on the same team every week. That is our error to fix at the source, not something to spend this budget on.
A sportsbook's number is a price. It is set to draw money to both sides, it moves with the money rather than with the game, and it carries the book's margin. Ours is none of those things — we take no bets, so we have nothing to balance. What you are reading is our estimate of what the game will actually do. You cannot wager at our number, and if you are betting, the book's price is the one that matters.
We are not trying to disagree with the market. We are trying to be right, and we build the number without reference to theirs — so where the two differ, that difference is the whole point of reading us. Sometimes we land on the same number they do. That is information too, not a wasted day.
Whether that independence has been worth anything is a fair question, and not one we get to answer with adjectives. Every number we publish is graded against the market's and against the final score on The Record, including the leagues where we are currently losing that comparison.
Spread from the index plus 1.75 home field, and that is the line — the model may move it two points at most, always explained in the write-up. Total pairs each side's scoring against the other's defence, using home and road splits at face value once a team has two games at each venue. One caveat we will keep printing because it is true: across all 272 games of 2025 the spread of team home-minus-away scoring was SMALLER than sampling noise alone would produce, and forcing raw splits in made totals worse — 10.71 to 10.88 points of average miss. The league-wide home edge is real (+2.07) but it cancels out of a total and is already in the spread, so only the team-specific tilt is used. Graded against DraftKings' Week 1 numbers: average miss of 0.92 points per game.