Every win rate is converted into the moneyline that breaks even at that rate: season record, home record, road record, and the FanGraphs rest-of-season and full-season projections. Today's posted price is stripped of vig and measured against the record for the venue the team is actually playing in (highlighted) — anything beyond ±1 SD of that split's standard error is priced outside what the season supports. Home/road records are live from ESPN; projections snapshot: 2026-09-30.
| Team | Record · win% · fair ML | Projected | October 5, 2026 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Home | Road | Rest of yr | ROS home | ROS road | Full year | Game | Fair on record | Fair on projection | Price | Edge ↕ | |