TABLE OF CONTENTS

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

Every stat, rating and market term used across the analytical pages — grouped by sport. 118 terms.

💵

BETTING & MODEL MATH

The shared language behind every league's numbers.

25 terms

Moneyline (ML)
The price to win the game outright, in American odds. −150 means risk 150 to win 100; +130 means risk 100 to win 130.
Spread / Line
The points handicap. A home spread of −3.5 means the home team must win by 4 or more to cover. Negative always means favored.
Puck line
Hockey's fixed ±1.5 spread. The favorite must win by 2; the dog covers with a one-goal loss or any win.
Run line
Baseball's fixed ±1.5 spread, same structure as the puck line.
Total / O-U
The combined score both teams are projected to reach. Over wins if the game finishes above it, Under if below.
Juice / Vig
The book's built-in margin. It's why the two sides of a market add up to more than 100%.
Implied probability
The win % baked into a price. For a negative price: −ML ÷ (−ML + 100). For a positive price: 100 ÷ (ML + 100).
De-vigged / Fair probability
Both sides' implied probabilities rescaled to add to exactly 100%, stripping out the vig. This is the market's true opinion and what our model gets compared against.
Fair line / Model price
The moneyline our win % would produce with no juice added — what the game is worth to us.
Edge
Our win probability minus the market's de-vigged probability for that same side, shown in percentage points. Positive edge means value.
The Play
The value side at the price you can actually bet — the side where our number beats the market's, quoted at that side's market price. Making a game closer than the market does puts the value on the underdog.
ATS value (points)
How many points our projected margin beats the market spread by. 3+ points is a strong disagreement.
Confidence badge
Strength of the disagreement. Strong Value = 3+ ATS points or 5%+ ML edge; Lean = 1.5+ points or 2.5%+; Thin = anything smaller.
Total lean
Our projected total minus the market total. Positive leans Over, negative leans Under.
Opener / Closer
The first line we captured and the last one before kickoff. The gap between them is the market's movement.
Line movement
A logged change in the spread or total after the opener — the market repricing the game.
Key numbers
Margins that occur far more often than their neighbors — 3 and 7 in football, 1 in hockey and baseball. Win % jumps sharply across them.
Standard deviation (SD)
How much final margins scatter around the projection. NFL ≈ 13.5, CFB ≈ 16.5. Larger SD means the favorite wins less often at the same spread.
Push
The result lands exactly on the number — the bet is refunded, not won or lost.
Units
One unit is one standard bet. The money ledger tracks profit and loss in units so stake size doesn't distort it.
Home field / court / ice edge
The points (or runs, or goals) added to the home side before comparing ratings. Neutral-site games get none.
Neutral site
A game at neither team's venue, so no home edge is applied.
Futures
Season-long championship prices. We de-vig the whole board and normalize it so every team's chance adds to 100%.
Shrinkage
Pulling a small-sample split back toward the full-season number so twelve home games don't get treated as gospel.
Sample size
How many games or plays a number rests on. Small samples move wildly and deserve less weight.
📊

POWER RATINGS, POWER INDEX & LINEGRADE

The ratings engine and the tools that grade it.

17 terms

Power Rating (PR)
A team's strength on a plus/minus scale where 0 is league average. Two teams' ratings differ by the points we expect to separate them on a neutral field.
PR differential / Rating gap
The absolute distance between the two teams' ratings — the raw size of the mismatch before home edge.
Power Index
The same idea on a 100-point scale. Subtract one team's index from the other's and you have the neutral-floor spread.
Predicted spread
The model's home-team spread, generated from the ratings plus home edge.
Predicted total
The model's combined score, built from both teams' scoring and scoring-allowed profiles.
Projected score
The predicted spread and total split back into two team scores.
Team total
One team's projected score on its own, rather than the combined number.
Base rating
The rating from results alone, before situational adjustments.
Adjusted rating
The base rating after adjustments — starter, venue, rest, injuries.
Vegas implied rating
A rating reverse-engineered from opening market prices — the market's version of our number.
Public consensus rating
The average rating implied across mainstream public books.
Recent trend rating
A rating built only from a team's last 20 games, to catch teams playing above or below their season line.
Preview
The written breakdown of a game. Context and reasoning only — it never overrides the number or the badge.
Note
A one-line situational flag (travel, rest, weather, a scratch). Context only, not baked into the rating.
LineGrade
The scorekeeper: it takes finished games, compares what our model said to what the market said, and grades who was closer to the actual result.
Calibration
Checking whether things we call 60% actually happen about 60% of the time. A well-calibrated model can be trusted at face value.
Result badge
A game's settled status on the ratings board: Pending, Away Win, Home Win or Push.
⚾

MLB

Pitching, park and platoon terms from the baseball board and the Projection Values page.

27 terms

ERA
Earned runs allowed per nine innings. Lower is better.
WHIP
Walks plus hits allowed per inning. A measure of how often a pitcher puts men on base.
GS
Games started.
ER
Total earned runs allowed.
IP
Innings pitched.
WAR
Wins Above Replacement — total value versus a freely available replacement player.
EPAS
Our starter-value score: how much a given starter shifts the game from the team's baseline. Higher means a bigger positive influence.
IP-EPAS
The unadjusted EPAS, before the workload and opponent adjustments are applied.
EQ
Pitcher efficiency — IP-EPAS divided by adjusted EPAS. A higher EQ means the starter delivers his value more efficiently, and the gap between the two starters' EQ moves the model's price in cents.
Pitcher status
Confirmed, Probable, TBD or Scratched. Anything short of Confirmed means the number can still move.
Bullpen ERA
Earned run average for relievers only.
Pen IP/g
Relief innings per game — how much of the workload the bullpen normally carries.
Pen IP L3
Relief innings over the previous three dates. A high figure flags a gassed bullpen.
Park factor
Run environment of the ballpark, where 100 is neutral. Above 100 favors hitters, below favors pitchers.
Platoon split
How a lineup performs against left- or right-handed starters, matched to the hand it's facing tonight.
Split OPS / AVG / PA
On-base plus slugging, batting average and plate appearances inside that platoon split. Low PA means a shaky sample.
RF/g and RA/g
Runs scored and runs allowed per game.
L10 record
Wins and losses over the last ten games.
First pitch weather
Temperature, wind and conditions, which populate only close to game time since forecasts before then aren't actionable.
Count bucket
The ball-strike count a pitch was thrown on — 0-0 (first pitch) through 3-2. Sequencing changes sharply from count to count, which is the whole point of the Pitcher Playbook.
Fastball / Breaking / Offspeed
The three pitch families. Fastball covers 4-seam, 2-seam, sinker and cutter; breaking covers slider, sweeper, curve and knuckle-curve; offspeed covers changeup and splitter.
Strike rate
Share of pitches in that count that registered as a strike — called, swinging, fouled or put in play.
Swing rate
Share of pitches the hitter swung at in that count.
Whiff per swing
Swings and misses as a share of total swings — the cleanest read on a pitch's bat-missing ability.
In play %
Share of pitches the hitter put into the field of play.
Projection value
Our record-and-pitching fair price for a team set against tonight's market price, so the gap is visible in cents.
Fair RL price
The no-vig price for a team at its ±1.5 run line, with the probability it covers.
🏈

NFL & COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Board stats plus the Playbook's situational tendency language.

14 terms

PF/g and PA/g
Points scored and points allowed per game.
Football win chart
A fixed spread-to-win% table from 0 to 14 points, in half-point steps, with the real jumps at 3 and 7. Past 14 we fall back to the normal-margin curve.
Week-based view
Football is shown by week rather than by day. Weeks roll over Tuesday at 12:01 AM Pacific.
Down and distance bucket
The situation a play started in — 1st down, or 2nd/3rd/4th split into short (1–2 yards), medium (3–6) and long (7+).
Run rate / Pass rate
The share of plays in that situation that were runs, or passes. Sacks count as pass plays.
Yards per play (YPP)
Average yards gained per play in that bucket.
Success rate
The share of plays that gained enough to stay on schedule: 40% of the distance on 1st down, 60% on 2nd, and the full distance on 3rd or 4th.
vs Lg
How far a team's run rate in that exact situation sits from the league's rate in the same situation, in percentage points. Positive means more run-heavy than the league.
Offense vs Defense side
Offense is the team's own play calls. Defense is what that team faced — a read on what opponents choose to do against it.
Red zone
Snaps starting inside the opponent's 20-yard line, where play-calling tightens up.
Full field
Every snap regardless of field position — the all-situations baseline.
League baseline
All 32 teams' plays combined for that situation. It's the reference every team's number is measured against.
Season toggle
Switches the Playbook between a completed season and the season in progress. Early in a new year the sample is thin.
Vs opener
How far a team's NFL index has drifted from where it opened the year.
🏀

NBA & WNBA

Efficiency, pace and the four factors on both ends.

17 terms

Net rating
Points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions. The single cleanest measure of team strength.
ORtg
Offensive rating — points produced per 100 possessions.
DRtg
Defensive rating — points allowed per 100 possessions.
Pace
Possessions per game. Pace inflates or deflates totals without changing who wins.
Four factors
The four inputs that decide possessions and efficiency: shooting (eFG%), turnovers (TOV%), rebounding (ORB%) and free throws (FT rate) — tracked on offense and defense.
eFG%
Effective field goal percentage — (FGM + 0.5 × 3PM) ÷ FGA, which credits threes for the extra point.
TOV%
Turnovers per possession. On defense, the rate a team forces them.
ORB%
Offensive rebounds captured as a share of the ones available.
FT rate (FTr)
Free throw attempts per field goal attempt — how often a team gets to the line.
Def eFG% / Def TOV% / Def ORB% / Def FTr
The same four factors from the defensive side: what a team allows or forces.
Last starters
The starting five from the most recent game — the fastest read on lineup or rest news.
Starter points
Points from the starting five in the last game.
Bench points
Points from the reserves in the last game. Under 13 gets flagged as thin depth.
Injury value
The points a missing player is worth to the spread, so you can adjust a rating by hand when news breaks.
Schedule spot
The situational context — back-to-back, three-in-four, long road trip, post-blowout — used to group results by circumstance.
By spread
Results grouped by how big a favorite or dog a team was, to expose where it over- and under-performs.
Home / road split
The same rating computed separately at home and away, shrunk toward the season number when the sample is small.
🏒

NHL

Goal-based inputs and the Poisson scoring engine.

5 terms

GF/g
Goals scored per game.
GA/g
Goals allowed per game.
xGF
Expected goals for — goals a team should score from the quality of its chances. It drives the hockey model because it settles faster than actual goals.
Poisson model
The scoring engine. Hockey goals arrive at a low, steady rate, so a Poisson distribution turns each side's expected goals into exact-score probabilities, and from there into moneyline, puck line and total prices.
Cover probability
The model's chance a side clears its puck line — that is, the favorite wins by two or more, or the dog loses by one or wins.
📋

TREND TRACKER, WINNING EDGES & FUTURES

The running ledgers and the category tallies.

13 terms

Trend Tracker
The running ledger of finished games: favorites versus dogs, ATS records, over/under records, filterable by sport and date range.
Favorites vs dogs record
How often the favored side actually won, across the selected window.
ATS record
Wins, losses and pushes against the closing spread.
Over/Under record
How often games finished above or below the closing total.
Team ledger
Per-team results inside the window, filterable by venue — all, home or road.
Money ledger
Profit and loss in units across the window.
Winning Edges
For each finished game, which statistical categories the winning team led — so you can see which categories actually travel with winning.
Category tally
Each category's hit rate over 7, 14 or 30 days, or the full season, ranked best to worst.
Hit rate
How often the winning team led that category. Ties count as hits, since the winner wasn't beaten in that category.
Game by game
The full roll-down of every final with both teams' numbers side by side in each category.
Futures snapshot
A dated capture of a whole championship board, which is what makes the week-by-week trend chart possible.
Normalized win %
A futures board de-vigged and rescaled so all teams' chances total 100% — the only fair way to compare across dates.
Market-best price
The most favorable number available on a side across all books on the multi-book screen.